Ying CB China 29 04 02.pptVIP免费

SlidesonCBIndustryinChinaCarbonblackindustrygrowthinChinaTheautoindustryinChinahasgrownataveryhighrateCBindustrygrowthrate,eventhoughfourtimesthatofglobalCBindustrygrowthrate,islowerthanthatofautomotiveandtireindustrygrowthrateOnaccountofrapidgrowthindemandofprivatesedanGrowthofautomotive,tireandCBindustryinChina0500,0001,000,0001,500,0002,000,0002,500,00019902000YearAutoandCB020,000,00040,000,00060,000,00080,000,000100,000,000120,000,000Tireo/pAutomobileo/p(nos.)CBo/p(tons)Tireo/p(nos.)CBCBAutoAutoTyresAverageannualgrowthratesofthesethreeindustriesinChinaAutomotive:14.9%Tires:13.8%CB:7.7%CarbonblackproductioninChinaProductionfacilitiesinChinaasofyear2000100CBunitscountry-widewithactualproductioncapacityof900,000tpaShanghaiCabotChemicalCo.Ltd.wasestd.in1999andhasthehighestproductioncapacityunit(at40,000tpa)ThelargestproducerofCBisTianjinHaitunCarbonBlackCo.Ltd.Smallunits(lessthan10000TPA)constitute55.9%(503000tons)ofnationalcapacityand57.5%(396000tons)ofthenationalproduction·Thecapacityutilisationthusworksoutto76.5%inyear2000NewprojectsinChinaIn2001,CabothassignedanMoUwithYangziPetrochemicalCo.ofSinopectosetupan80,000tpainNanjingEnterprisestructureandenterprisecapacitiesinChinaEarlieralmostallofthemwere“state-ownedenterprises”or“collectiveenterprises”Halfoftheenterpriseswithcapacityover10000tpaareownedbycollectives,JVsorprivatelyCapacity>10000tpahavedonewell(13nos.enterprises)in2000inspiteofstagnantCBpricesandincreasedRMcostsCarbonBlackgrades28varietiesareinproductionCBbasedontroughprocesswillincrease(duetoincreaseddemandforradialtyres,astheyrequirehomogeneousandstablequalityCB)DemandforCBmadefromFCCCBFSwouldalsoincrease,astheenvironmentalconsiderationsbecomeimportant(tiresyieldinggreaterfueleconomy)DemandforCBusedforplasticprocessingwouldalsoincreaseagainstrengtheningthedemandforhighqualityCBTraditionalCBaretroughprocesscarbonblackfromnaturalgas,CBfrommixedgasesandsemi-reinforcedCBfromnaturalgasCarbonblackproductioninChinaCarbonblackproductioninChinaHighusagegradesareN330,N220andN660·ConsumptiongrowthrateofN660isthehighest·HardCB:SoftCBis70:30Packaging:Traditionally,packagingisdonein20kgbags.BulkCBpackaging(500-1000kg)isgaininggroundRM(“rawoil”)supplysituationBroadlytheconsumptionnormofrawoilis2:1Broadlytheconsumptionnormofrawoilis2:1RawoildemandtogaindomesticsufficiencyinCBdemandforecasttobe1.62mn,1.94mn,2.44mntonsin2005,2010and2015respectivelyRawoiltypes·1.2mntonsofoilwereconsumedintheCBindustry-50%ofitwasethylenetaroil+anthraceneoil.Another50%wasrawcoaltaroilcontainingasphaltandalotoffreecarbonCarbonblackproductioninChinaRM(“rawoil”)supplysituation..contd.»ETO(greatdealofthisisusedasdomesticfuelinpetrochemicalplants)andCTO(hasdiversifieduses)areinshortsupplyandpricesarehigh-FCCisproducedbydomesticrefiners,butthepricequotedishighandhencenotapopularRMforCBRawoilprices·wereveryhigh(marginsof60%)inyear2000,becauseofhighpricesglobally.Endof2000,highpricescontinued(withacostofRM/costofsalesofCBintheregionof60,whiletheworld-widetrendhadcomedownto40-50)EnduserindustrytrendsBuyingofcarsisgoingtoincreasefurther,givenreductionintheirpriceandduetoconstructionofroadwaysandhighwaysProductionofbiketyresdecreasedby29.7%in1999,ascomparedto1997.ThistrendwouldcontinueinbothruralandurbanareasCarbonblackproductioninChinaDemand-supplygapinChinaDemandandSupplymovementsinChina449.6515.2696.6763.6845.3514.8515.2475.4665.5754.00.0100.0200.0300.0400.0500.0600.0700.0800.0900.019971998199920002001Output('000tons)Consumption('000tons)ThegapbetweendemandanddomesticsupplyofCBhasincreasedfrom0.4thousandtons(0.08%ofconsumption)in1997toabout81.7thousandtons(9.7%ofconsumption)in2001CarbonblackproductioninChinaProductionbykeyplayers(in‘000tons)ThegapbetweendemandanddomesticsupplyofCBhasincreasedfrom0.4thousandtons(0.08%ofconsumption)in1997toabout81.7thousandtons(9.7%ofconsumption)in2001Company19992000%increaseShanghaiCabot46.367.245.14%TianjinHaitun(Dolphin)60.352.1-13.60%QingdaoDegussa32.841.727.13%ShanghaiLishi23.731.733.76%Qingzhou32.525.8-20.62%MaomingYongye21.319.7-7.51%Yixing15.21818.42%HangzhouFuchunjiang16.717.86.59%YearImportvolume('000tons)Importprice(USD/ton)199722.80.721998820.57199961.40.57200083.20.62200195.60.64Trendinimportprices(USD/ton)