GS_LNG_May_2003_1724[1].pptVIP免费

AnneCQuinnGroupVicePresident–Gas,Power&RenewablesGoldmanSachsGlobalLNGSeminar28May2003LondonBP’sGlobalGasPositionBoliviaTrinidadTangguhBPGasResourcesBPGasSalesNorthwestShelfAngolaVicoEgyptLNGIndustryDynamicsContinuetoDriveGrowth05010015020025019641973198019901996200020102010L2010Hi7%CAGREarlyLNGgrowthRiseofAsianLNGPlentifulGasReservesJapanKoreaTaiwanOtherEuropeU.S.LowergrowthLNGgainsgreatermarketshareofUSsupplygap0501001502002503003504002020AsialacksProximalsupplyDriversDriversNewM.ELowCostSupplyNewAtlanticLowCostSupplyUSproximalsupplydeclinesHigherdemandgrowthdrivenbylowerAsianpricesCCGTdrivesgasdemandNewAsiancustomers5%CAGR10%CAGRMajorp/lcompetitionGasdemandgrowthcontinuesCostsallownewsmallermarketstobereachedmtpamtpa7%CAGRUSaccessconstraints&lowpricesConstrainedUSaccess2002Salesvolumeof111milliontonnesLNGp.a.•15bcf/dor6%ofworldgasdemandof230bcf/d•2.5millionboe/dor3%ofworldoildemand2002$25bannualsalesrevenues;130LNGships–costof$4bperyearKeyLNGMarketsTangguhAsiaPacificTrinidadUSANWSEuropetoIndiaAtlanticUKIndiaChinaKoreaJapanSpainItalyUSAAdgasLNGremainsaregionalbusiness•US:deepandliquidmarket--gainingaccesstoregascapacityensuresaccesstomarket•Europe:partialliberalisation--regascapacityandcustomersgenerallydifficulttosecure•Asia-Pacific:customerspreferlongtermcontracts--keyissecuringcommitmentsLinearbusinessmodelHighInertiaenvironmentGasmonetisationpriorityMerchantTraderEarlyMarketaccessPortfolioopportunitiesVicoBPLNGTodayandFutureDevelopmentsSpain,FranceItaly,UKAfricaIndiaUSWCAsiaPacificMiddleEastAtlanticUSAJapan,Korea,ChinaTrinidadTrains2&3CovePointre-gascapacityTrinidadTrains4-6BuildNewUSEastCoastre-gasAdgastoSpain(3Years)QatargastoSpain(3Years)IranLNGKakinandare-gas&powerproject,IndiaDabhol,IndiaNWSsupplyintoJapan/KoreaGuangdongre-gasterminalownershipFuijansupplycontractPhilippinessupply(LOI)VicoNWSTrain5–Japan/Korea/ChinaTangguh–Japan/Korea/Taiwan/Java,USWestCoastNigeriatoSpainspotcargoesEgyptItalyre-gasterminalLNGtoUK•Focusisondevelopingaccesstokeypremiummarketsdevelopment/capacityinre-gas.•Marketpositionsinadvanceofequitysupplymanagedthroughshorttermsupplydeals&spot.•EmergingsupplynetworkprovidesnewopportunitiesforLNGtradingLongtermeconomicsupplyShorttermopportunitiesPotentialnewprojectsCurrentactivitesBritishTraderinTrinidad(10/05/03)TrinidadSpainElbaIslandCovePointBostonTrains2&340%Spain60%US&OtherTrain140%Spain60%US&OtherDiversion&BackFillOpportunityLakeCharlesTrinidad-aNewComplexSetofDeliveriestoCaptureUSMarketOpportunitiesTrains2&3ValueChainAlignment–RepsolacquireupstreaminterestinBPTrinidad&TobagoPotentialDiversion–TrinidadianvolumesdestinedforSpaintomoreattractiveUSmarketsRiskManagement–opportunitytobalancesupply/demandinSpainCovePointTerminalDominicanRepublicKeyLNGMarketsTangguhAsiaPacificTrinidadUSANWSEuropetoIndiaAtlanticUKIndiaChinaKoreaJapanSpainItalyUSAAdgasLNGremainsaregionalbusiness•US:deepandliquidmarket--gainingaccesstoregascapacityensuresaccesstomarket•Europe:partialliberalisation--regascapacityandcustomersgenerallydifficulttosecure•Asia-Pacific:customerspreferlongtermcontracts--keyissecuringcommitmentsLinearbusinessmodelHighInertiaenvironmentGasmonetisationpriorityMerchantTraderEarlyMarketaccessPortfolioopportunitiesVicoYachengKovyktaBeijingLong-DistanceGasPipelineFujianGuangdongRegasTerminalBuildingaGasBusinessinSouth-ChinaNWStoGuangdong•BP16.7%-net50mmscf/dYachengY13•BP34%-net100mmscf/d(inproduction)TangguhtoFujian•BP37%-net125mmscf/dGuangdongTerminal&Trunkline•BP30%•FirstLNGterminalinChina1996200120022002NorthwestShelfLNGTangguhLNGTangguhBPEquityGasintoLNGPlant01,0002,0003,000SontrachShellQatarBPXOMTFEmmscf/d2006E2003BPinternalanalysisbasedonpubliclyavailabledatagassuppliedtoplantsmmscfd050010001500200000010203040508NewLNG~source:BPprojections03-05,08marketscapturedasofDec‘020500100015002000JapanAmericasSpainChinaOthermmscfdTrinidad2&3Trinidad1IndonesiaAustraliaBuildingMarketsAheadofSupplyBP’sgrowthinequitygasissupportedbybuildingkeyLNGmarketpositionsinallthreeregionsaheadofthesupply