TelecomIndustryPerspectiveJayXinHuVicePresident,StrategicAdvisoryServices,XindeGroupForWP621,London,Nov.2000ThankyouChairman.IwouldliketobeginbythankingmyfriendJohnHoffmanforinvitingmetobeatthisgreatconference,andaddressyoutodayonChina’sdevelopmentinthetelecomindustryinthecontextofglobalization.IwouldalsoliketomentionafewwordsabouttheXindeGroup.WeareaChina-basedforeignfinancialinstitutionspecializedinprovingfinancial,technicalandmanagerialservicestoemerginghigh-techandtelecomcompaniesinChina.OurpriorengagementsincludehelpingUnicomdevelopseveralwirelesssystems.NowweareworkingwithotheremergingcarriersinChinawiththeirbusinessplanning,andseveralhigh-techprojectsinChina.Weallseearoundusarapidly-integratingworldeconomy.Oneofthemostrecentdriversforglobalintegrationistheadvancementofthetelecomindustry.RobustM&Ashavetakenplace,asUSandEUderegulatedtheirtelecomsectorssince1996.AsiaisquicklybecomingtheThirdAxisofthisglobalcompetitionandintegration.SinceourpaneliststodayhavealreadyaddressedvariousaspectsofthetelecomdevelopmentinChina,inmybriefremark,Iwillhighlighttheparadigmshiftsinthissector,anddiscussspecificallyhowforeignbusinesscommunityshouldanticipateandact.Mydiscussionscanbeoverlysimplisticduetothetimeconstraint.Somepeoplemayhavethequestion,whyweshouldevencareaboutChina?Tomany,itisstillavalidargument.Forexample,whenforeigncarriersandinvestorswereaskedtoterminatetheirCCFinvestmentinUnicom,afewofthemhavechosentodownsizetheirChinaoffices,orevencloseentirely.AlthoughChinaTelecomhasbecomethesecondworldlargestwirelinecarrierandwirelesscarrier(inthelatercase,onlyafterVodafoneafteritsrecentacquisitions),andalthoughtherecontinuestobegreatmarketpotentialfornewentrantsastheoverallteledensityinChinaisonlyafractionoftheworldaverage,ithasbeenclearlyperceivedinmanyoccasionsthatChinamarketremainstobethemostdifficultplaceforforeigncompanies.Therearenumerousaspectsofthisissue,andIwouldliketooffermyviewsaboutthreeongoingparadigmshiftsinChina’stelecomsector,andhopefullywillgiveyouamoreoptimisticperspective.First,thereisatechnologyshiftinthissector.Thenetworkisevolvingfromcircuit-switchedtopacket-switched,andthemassivedigitalizationofcontentandtrafficisleadingtotheconvergenceofcomputer,communicationsandconsumerelectronics,orinanotherwords,theconvergenceofdata,voiceandvideo.Inamatterofthreeyears,voiceofIPwillaccountformorethan30%oftotalvoicetrafficinChina,andabout20%oftelecomenduserswillhaveaccesstothebroadbandservices.Asaconsequence,thedigitalized,bandwidthhungryserviceswillrequireextensivenetworkbuild-outatboththeinfrastructureandaccessnetworklayers,thatcanberealizedinanalmostunlimitedhostoftechnologysolutionsatacostunimaginableafewyearsago.Itwillalsoleadtotheemergenceofnon-traditionaltelecomcarriersandvalue-addedserviceproviders,suchascable,satellite,andICPs.Manyofthesearealreadyveryactiveinexploringnewwaysfromcontentsyndicationtocustomercare.Asaresult,severalChinesecities,suchasShanghaiandShenzhen,couldwellbecomeanimportantinformationhubinAsia.WealsoanticipatethatChineselanguagecontentandevennaturalinputinterfacewillproliferateveryquickly;andeventually,telecomservicefeesinChinawillnotbebasedondistanceorminutesofuse.Meanwhile,asChinamarkethasreachedacriticalmass,itisevitablethatChinacandictateChinesespecificstandardandsolution,beitinunifiedmassaging,set-topboxes,ornextgenerationwireless.Then,...
