Final forecasting Manual.docVIP免费

AshokLeylandLimitedProjectOSCARSIIForecastingProcessManualChennai,10thOctober,1999A.T.Kearney28ac62b2-890f-472b-9d47-f1393b7e34dc.doc1TableofcontentsTableofcontents2Theproposedforecastingsystem4Theneedforrevisingthecurrentforecastingsystem4Keyfeaturesoftherevisedforecastingsystem4Scopeofforecasting5Summarisedforecastgenerationprocess5Forecastingprocessatthedealership6Roleofprospectingindealershipforecasts6Weeklysalesmeetings9Fortnightlysalesmenprospectanalysis9FortnightlydealerALLmeeting10Thetimehorizonofthedealershipforecast11ForecastingprocessatRegionaloffices12Forecastgeneration12Consolidationofforecastsandcalculationofforecastvariation14Verificationthroughstatisticalforecastingsystem15Benefitsoftherevisedforecastingprocesstoregionsanddealers18ForecastingprocessatMarketingHO18Finalisationofproductionresponse20Communicationtotheregionsonallocationagainstforecast20Annexure1:RegionalRollingForecasts22A.T.Kearney28ac62b2-890f-472b-9d47-f1393b7e34dc.doc2Annexure2:Thedeadlinesforsubmissionofforecastsbyregionstoheadoffice23Annexure3:Definitionofhot,warmandcoldprospect24Annexure4:SalesmanDailyReport25Annexure5:Agendaofweeklysalesmeeting26Annexure6:FortnightlySalesExecutiveProspectAnalysisReport26Annexure7:RollingFortnightlyForecast28Annexure8:AgendaofthefortnightlyALLdealermeeting29A.T.Kearney28ac62b2-890f-472b-9d47-f1393b7e34dc.doc3TheproposedforecastingsystemTheneedforrevisingthecurrentforecastingsystemAtALLHOlevel,Productionplanningmeetings,calledPPRMsandPPMsarebeingheldevery2ndWednesdaytodecideonproductionsixweeksfromthedateofthatmeeting.Fore.g.MiniPRMheldonAug15thwithdecideonproductionbetween16-30.Productionisfrozenforthefirstfourweeks,nochangesbeingpermitted.Someflexibilitywillbeprovidedinsubsequentweeks,detailsofwhichwillbenotifiedlater.Asaresult,itisnecessaryformarketingtosubmitforecastsonafortnightlybasisgeneratedfromdealershipPredictingdemandhasacquiredsignificanceinthelasttwoyearsofdynamicmarketmovements.However,theforecastingsystemcurrentlyinplaceacrossthecountrylacksafewcriticalinputslike:StandardiseddealershipprocessesforprospectingandsalestimingestimationrequiredtoprovideinputstodealerforecastDealernonadherencetoforecastingtimelinesLackofstandardisedformatsacrossthecountryThemanagementhashencemadeadecisiontostandardisetheforecastingprocessacrossthecountryandaligninternaldealerprocessestogeneratetherequiredinputsKeyfeaturesoftherevisedforecastingsystemForecastsaretobesubmittedwithindeadlinesfor6fortnights,2fortnightsfirmand4fortnightstentativeDealersshouldgenerateforecastsfor4fortnights,2fortnightsfirmand2fortnightstentativeonthe8thand23rdofeverymonthDealerforecastingshouldbebasedonastrongprospectingsystemtobeputinplaceatdealershipsRegionalofficesshouldvalidatethedealerforecastsandgenerateadditionalforecastsforfortnight5and6withtheaidofastatisticalmodeltobeputinplaceattheregionaloffices.Changescanbemadetotheseforecastsbasedontheirjudgementonfuturemarkettrends,theirassessmentofforecastaccuracyandspecialsalesefforts,whichareplannedforspecificmodels.Suchchangesshouldbeexplicitlystatedandapproved.Regionalforecastsshouldbesubmittedbythe10thand25thofeverymonthHeadofficeshouldgeneratetheproductionrequirementplanbasedonregionalsalesforecastandinventorynormsgeneratedbythesystem.Changescanbemadetotheproductionrequiremen...