Ying CB understanding 29 04 02.pptVIP免费

1AboutCarbonBlack2AboutCarbonBlackCarbonBlackisacarbon-richmaterialinamorphousform,producedfromhydrocarbonsTherearetwobroadcategoriesofproductionprocessesCarbonBlackisusedasareinforcementfillerinrubber,asapigmentinprintinginks,coatings,plasticsandavarietyofotherapplicationsMuchofCarbonBlackisusedintireindustry.TwogradesofCarbonBlackTreadgrade(particlesize:18nmto38nm)Carcassgrade(particlesize:44nmto75nm)SpecificgradesofBlackareusedtoimpartspecificdesiredpropertiestorubberPartialcombustionThermalcracking-Channelprocess..nolongerinuse-Gasfurnaceprocess..usesNGasfeedstock.Nowreplacedalmostentirelybyoilfurnaceprocess-Oilfurnaceprocess..Mostwidelyfollowedprocesstoday.UsesLiquidAromaticHydrocarbonsasfeedstock-Thermaldecompositionofhydracarbons....usesNaturalGasorAcetyleneasfeedstock-UsedsometimesintheproductionofspecialBlacks3CarbonBlackIndustry-Anoverview-4CarbonBlackIndustryOverview-EstimatedworldwidedemandforCarbonBlackhasshownaflattrendintheperiod1999-2001,exceptforspecialtyblacksTheglobaldemandforCarbonBlackinyear2001wasestimatedtobe7.42millionMTTireindustryconstitutedmorethantwo-thirdsofthetotalCarbonBlackworld-widedemandApartfromspecialtyblacks,theotherusersegmentshaveshownaflatgrowthtrendMarketforspecialtyblacksisestimatedtobegrowingatarateof3.2%(4.97millionMT)(0.44millionMT)(1.97millionMT)4,9635,1014,9791,8932,0371,97144145647001,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,000199920002001Demandin'000MTTireindustryCBdemandNon-tireindustryCBdemandSpecialtyBlacksdemandConsumptionofCarbonBlackinenduserindustriesTireindustry67%Non-tirerubber27%Specialtyblacks6%Source:PwCEstimates5TheconceptualframeworkusedforestimatingdemandofCarbonBlackintireindustryisbasedonsalesindifferenttiremarketsegmentsandCarbonBlackusageinthesameFor1999,ourestimateofworld-wideconsumptionofCarbonBlackintireindustryis4.9mn.MTEstimationoftiresalesForyears2001,2000,1999Excl.IndiaandCISCars&lighttrucksHeavytrucksAgricultureMotorcyclesAviation/EarthmoverWorld-wideestimateoftiresalesAddestimatesforIndiaandCISApplyEstimateofCB*requiredinarepresentativetireofeachsegmentWorld-wideestimateofCarbonBlackconsumedAddestimatesforbicycletiresandre-treadingmarketBasisofestimates:MichelinFactbook2001,BISNISreports,ATMA,Expertinputs.Otherreferencesincludeannualreportsofglobaltiremajors,tireandrubberindustrywebsites*CB:CarbonBlack6KeyresultsofPwC’sdemandmodeling:The“trucks”segmentaccountsforthehighestshareofCarbonBlackdemandintireindustryTheReplacementMarketisLargerthantheOEMmarketforTires,accordingtothefollowingratios:Cars&lighttrucks:Replacementmarket2.4timeslargerHeavytrucks:Replacementmarket5.0TimesHigher-Source:MichelinFactbook,PwCAnalysis3.Totalestimate:4.9millionMTSource:PwCanalysis1.“Others”includesCBconsumptioninaviation,motorcyclesandearthmovertires2.Theanalysispresentedisfortheyear2001ConsumptionofCarbonBlackinautoindustrysegments44%44%6%6%CarsandLightTrucksHeavyTrucksAgriculturalTiresOthers7NorthAmerica28%Asia-Pac35%OtherWorld18%WesternEurope19%CarbonBlackdemandandproductiondistributioninkeygeographicalregionsRelativelylowinter-regionaltrade-demandandproductionlargelymatchAsia-Pacregionhasshownthehighestdemand,andisanetimportercurrentlyOtherworld-whichincludesEasternEuropeandLatinAmerica-isanetexporter.OfthisEasternEuropeisanexportingregion,whileLatinAmericaisactuallyanetimporterinsm...