-1-TheNetEconomyRolandBergerHanielManagementConferenceDuisburg,September2,1999RolandBerger&PartnerGmbH–InternationalManagementConsultantsBarcelona–Beijing–Berlin–Brussels–Bucharest–Budapest–BuenosAires–Delhi–Detroit–Düsseldorf–Frankfurt–Hamburg–Kiev–KualaLumpur–LisbonLondon–Madrid–Milan–Moscow–Munich–NewYork–Paris–Prague–Riga–Rome–SãoPaulo–Shanghai–Stuttgart–Tokyo–Vienna–Zurich-2-A.Statusanddevelopmentoftheneteconomy©RolandBerger&Partners1999-3-I.Structuraltransformationfromindustrialtoinformation/knowledge/servicesociety1.Thefeatures➨Industrialemploymentdeclinesfrom>30%to<20%➨Information/knowledge/service-drivenemploymentandvaluecreation➨Corporationsand“employees”workinincreasinglyvirtual,networkedformsoforganization➨Informationtechnologyande-technologiesdeterminevalueaddedprocesses/productivityinindustryandservicecompanies➨Bothonaninternalbasisandtowardcustomers/suppliers,(global)industriesandserviceprovidersaresettingupnetworkedstructures-4-2.Europe:Onthepathtotheknowledge/information/servicesociety...VolumeofworkWestGermany[millionhours]Source:IAB,RolandBerger&PartnerscalculationsPriv.services8,5695,1593,0102,0671,40026,09924,62920,12218,15514,68010,2939,3428,7628,4938,5006,8657,0708,52010,15012,7606,2706,7546,5965,5684,25919601970198019901998-22.2%+47.2%+85.9%-43.8%-83.7%Volumeofwork-17.4%+6.3%+94.5%+170.3%-19.8%-84.1%Employ-ment+11.0%StateSecondarysectorPrimarysectorTrade/transport56,08351,77047,00846,09243,610USAaheadinstructuralchange:Nowonly<20%inmanufacturing!-5-3.…andtovirtualemploymentstructuresStandard/non-standardemploymentrelationshipsWestGermany1970-1996[%]Source:IWGexclusivelyinlow-paidworkPart-timeworkerssubjecttosocialinsuranceWorkersontemporarycontractsdependentemploymentShort-timeworkersandthoseonjob-creationschemes19701975198019851990199616.0%1.1%11.2%5.2%66.5%7.5%4.7%4.5%83.3%80.1%5.0%6.9%7.2%0.8%➨Institutions/companiesvirtuallynetworkedinternally/mutually➨People“entrepreneursoftheirskills”-6-➨➨➨➨DeclineinthetDeclineinthetDeclineinthetDeclineinthetraditionalautomotiveindustry:27-48%4.Internetbusinessfaraheadof“old”industriesintermsofproductivityProductivity(salesperemployee)US1998[US$]160,000218,000244,000309,000AutomotiveindustryE-commerce(retailers)SoftwareproducersHardwareproducersSource:CREC/UniversityofTexas-7-5.Declining“costofdistance”viae-technologies100115132139147162179197100949279757169589192939495969798CostofcallminutesforOECD/internationalcalls[1991=100]100110127137146158168178100858178797774739192939495969798Kilometercostsonaflight/passengerkilometers[1991=100]Avg.costofPentiumprocessor/percapitacomputerspreadinEU[1992=100]10010911714518121726510095927672655492939495969798Source:ITU,EITO,RolandBerger&PartnersanalysesTCcostsInternationalcallsPassengerkmCostofkmPCspreadPriceofprocessor-8-II.Fivesustainable,constantandirreversibletrendstowardtheneteconomydemandanewstrategicandoperativefocus-9-1.Newe-basictechnologiesasdriversofchange•TheInternet•Thee-networktechnologies•e-commercetechnologiesareproliferatinggloballyatbreakneckspeed➨Numberofwebtransactionsdoublesevery100days(!!!),200msubscriberstoday➨Numberofnetworkedcomputersupfrom150min1999to1bnin2004(x7!!!)➨Globalsalesviae-commerce:US$1.8to3.2trillionin2003(x20!!!)Source:Intel,AC,Forrester,Dataquest,RolandBerger&Partnersanalys...
