NY-262408.203/000606YnmasHR1CONFIDENTIALDiscussionDocumentOctober20,2000GlobalHigh-TechIndustrySummary:DesktopandNotebookPersonalComputersLEGENDCOMPUTERNY-262408.203/000606YnmasHR12HardwareIndustryOverview:DISCUSSIONSUMMARY:DESKTOPANDNOTEBOOKPERSONALCOMPUTERS•Assessmentofworldwidemarket•Performanceofmajorglobalplayers•Effectsofincreasingcompetition•Discussionofkeytrends:–Successofdirectsalesmodel–Capturingprofits“beyondthebox”DesktopandNotebookPersonalComputers:NY-262408.203/000606YnmasHR13ASSESSMENTOFWORLDWIDEHARDWAREMARKET:ROBUSTGROWTH,ESPECIALLYINNEWTECHNOLOGIES1999-2004年按产品分类的行业规模1999-2004年按地区分类的行业规模10亿美元年复合增长率19992004167.7224.750.073.997.5147.952.732.422.917.2年复合增长率低档服务器个人电脑传统工作站外设网络10.2%6.0%8.7%8.1%152.3193.3249.178.9124.2104.519992004美洲欧洲亚太14.4%9.5%7.8%总体增长率7.0%总体增长率5.2%中档服务器高档服务器5.9%-1.0%-5.0%383.1538.1538.1383.1中东/非洲7.0%11.210.67.05.46.312.4资料来源：IDC,June2000,麦肯锡分析Seenewversion-handdrawnNY-262408.203/000606YnmasHR14Historicalsituation•RecentlyacquiredDigitalandTandem•Indirectmodelfocus•Strong,across-the-boardpresenceinallregions•MasteredthedirectmodelinU.S.•Replicatingdirectmodelinothermarkets–launchinghigh-endserversandworkstations•Fastbecomingamarketingportal•PrimarilyaU.S.-basedconsumerPCcompany•FollowingDell’sexampleinleveragingInternet•Aggressivemovetointernetaccessdevices•PCbusinessisalossleader•Primarilyindirect(withthesameissuesasCompaq)•AdvantageousMercedrelationshipwithIntel•Strongsolutionsfocus•PrimarilyanindirectplayerKeyissues•Unclearstrategy•Noprogresstowardsadirectmodel•Uncompetitivecoststructure•RelativelyweakinEMEA•Lacksaservicespartnership(thoughIBMcouldprovidethis)•LackofpresenceinEnterprise(iscurrentpositiontenableinlongterm?)•Needtoexpandgeographicfootprint•AOLrelationship•Successofinternetaccessdeviceas“razor”forservices•NeedtodecidewhethertocontinueinPChardwaremarketorfocusonservicesandcomponents•Nodirectmodel•NeedtoleveragetheInternetMAJORHARDWAREPLAYERSFACEADIVERSESETOFCHALLENGESOEMCompaqDellGatewayIBMHPNY-262408.203/000606YnmasHR15GROWTHVSPROFITABILITYFORMAJORPLAYERSINWORLDWIDEHARDWAREMARKETPROFIT/UNITUNITGROWTHMICRONHPCOMPAQIBMAPPLEGATEWAYDELLBETTERBESTBADWORSTSource:GoldmanSachsGROWTHVERSUSPROFITABILITY,FIRSTHALFOF1999NY-262408.203/000606YnmasHR16Note:BookandmarketvaluesasofDec.31,1994andOct29,1999Source:Compustat,GNEPAnalysis02468101214161820024681012141618202224BookvalueofcommonequityMarket-to-bookratio1010050Marketvalue150200IBM199919943129CompaqHPCanonEDSSunXeroxMedtronicDellLexmarkTektronixTeradyneVarianNationalInstrGateway100STRATEGICCONTROLMAP-MAJORPLAYERSINWORLDWIDEHARDWAREMARKET1994-1999NY-262408.203/000606YnmasHR17AVERAGESELLINGPRICESFALLINGDUETOINCREASINGCOMPETITIONPCsDollars-6.2%AveragepricedeclineServers*$Thousands-3.6%Mainframeservers$Millions-4.4%1,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,00019992003101214161820199920031.01.21.41.61.82.019992003*EntryandmidrangeSource:IDCKeyfactorscausingASPdecline•Increasedpricedeclineduetocommoditization•Industryshifttowardsmorecost-effectivedirectdistributionmodels•Industryshifttowardsmoreefficientmanufacturing,e.g.,one-touchprocessNY-262408.203/000606YnmasHR18*Sun,Compaq,Siemens,andNECeachhaveabout4%Source:DataquestPercentWHITEBOXESPERSISTINTHEPCLANDSCAPEASCOMMODIT...
