中信零售银行业务财务模型1.关键假设2.详细计算3.现金流量预测4.关键结果Pleaseselectthelanguage:请选择语言：English中文KeyAssumptions,41be446d-0c7e-4530-9da1-f8b1972cd08e.xls,05/05/2025,18:12:24Page2of12关键假设01234561999200020012002200320042005基本假设利息率人民币储蓄活期平均%1.0%定期平均%2.2%中间转移利率%3.2%外币储蓄活期平均%2.2%定期平均%4.5%中间转移利率%6.0%信用卡透支利率%19.6%滞纳金罚息率%5.0%住房按揭平均按揭贷款利率%5.5%商户回扣率%1.0%其它比率所得税税率%33.0%平均折旧年限yrs10年末客户数目'000448总数中的占比%60%总数中的占比%30%总数中的占比%10%增长率%20%10%5%1%1%1%%60%50%46%35%28%20%%60%50%46%35%28%20%人均利差收入平均余额RMB5,0005,0005,0005,0005,0005,0005,000人民币储蓄活期RMB2,5002,5002,5002,5002,5002,5002,500定期RMB2,0002,0002,0002,0002,0002,0002,000外币储蓄，折合人民币活期RMB50505050505050定期RMB450450450450450450450商户回扣收入人均持卡消费金额RMB6.060150300450600750其它收入RMB0404040404040平均余额RMB30,00030,00030,00030,00030,00030,00030,000人民币储蓄活期RMB9,5009,5009,5009,5009,5009,5009,500定期RMB15,00015,00015,00015,00015,00015,00015,000外币储蓄，折合人民币活期RMB500500500500500500500定期RMB5,0005,0005,0005,0005,0005,0005,000商户回扣收入人均持卡消费金额RMB12.53006001,0001,3001,6001,900其它收入RMB0303030303030储蓄相关产品/服务组合1(余额<RMB10,000)组合2(余额RMB10,000-100,000)组合3(余额>RMB100,000)组合1(余额<RMB10,000)组合2(余额RMB10,000-100,000)组合3(余额>RMB100,000)组合1(余额<RMB10,000)组合2(余额RMB10,000-100,000)KeyAssumptions,41be446d-0c7e-4530-9da1-f8b1972cd08e.xls,05/05/2025,18:12:24Page3of12关键假设01234561999200020012002200320042005平均余额RMB150,000150,000150,000150,000150,000150,000150,000人民币储蓄活期RMB15,00015,00015,00015,00015,00015,00015,000定期RMB80,00080,00080,00080,00080,00080,00080,000外币储蓄，折合人民币活期RMB5,0005,0005,0005,0005,0005,0005,000定期RMB50,00050,00050,00050,00050,00050,00050,000商户回扣收入人均持卡消费金额RMB158001,5002,0002,5003,0003,500其它收入RMB0000000业务人员每个网点的业务人员数目'6.46.36.36.26.26.26.1月对帐单，个人外汇交易，个人理财咨询等'000RMB2,0002,0002,0002,0002,0002,000信用卡市场状况信用卡市场发行城市的人口'00027,00053,000增长率%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%信用卡的普及率%3%3%4%5%6%7%中信的市场份额%3.0%4.0%5.5%6.5%7.2%7.7%经常使用的信用卡的占比%100%95%92%89%87%84%利差收入年费收入RMB505050505050商户折扣人均消费金额RMB3,0003,2403,4993,9194,5075,183利息收入人均透支比率%5.0%7.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%滞纳金占透支余额的百分比%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%坏帐率%4.0%4.0%4.0%4.0%4.0%4.0%业务人员信用卡中心平均每个业务人员对应的客户数目'0000.51.31.82.32.83.3分中心受理人员'63535353535银行卡系统'000RMB5,0005,0005,0005,0005,0005,000住房按揭市场状况业务启动城市的市场规模'000RMB125,000,000210,000,000246,250,000282,500,000318,750,000355,000,000中信的市场份额%1.2%1.4%1.6%1.8%2.0%2.2%净损失率%0.3%0.5%0.6%0.6%0.7%0.7%0.8%业务人员每个分行所需的业务人员数目'4.57.09.09.39.69.9启动按揭业务的分行数目'111616161616按揭自动化系统'000RMB5,0001,0001,0001,0001,0001,000销售和营销销售人员组合3(余额>RMB100,000)在IT系统上的资本开支在IT系统上的资本开支在IT系统上的资本开支KeyAssumptions,41be446d-0c7e-4530-9da1-f8b1972cd08e.xls,05/05/2025,18:12:24Page4of12关键假设01234561999200020012002200320042005不同方式获得新客户的占比直销人员%35%40%46%50%50%50%%15%18%20%21%22%23%销售人员每年获得客户数目新客户'0000.50.60.60.60.60.6住房按揭每个分行的销售人员数目'333333广告和促销一次性的...
