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-1-MUC-0061-90000-02-02.pptRolandBerger&PartnerGmbH–InternationalManagementConsultantsBarcelona–Beijing–Berlin–Brussels–Bucharest–Budapest–BuenosAires–Delhi–Detroit–Düsseldorf–Frankfurt–Hamburg–Kiev–KualaLumpur–LisbonLondon–Madrid–Milan–Moscow–Munich–NewYork–Paris–Prague–Riga–Rome–SãoPaulo–Shanghai–Stuttgart–Tokyo–Vienna–ZurichHolderbankManagement&Consulting–Summaryandresults:Kick-offmeeting–Slagsupply2020Madrid,February16,2000-2-MUC-0061-90000-02-02.pptAgenda1.Discussobjectivesandprojectapproach32.Setframeworkfortop-downanalysis63.Developapproachforbottom-upstudy164.Definecontactpersonsandmilestones23-3-MUC-0061-90000-02-02.ppt1.Discussobjectivesandprojectapproach-4-MUC-0061-90000-02-02.pptTheobjectiveofthissurveyistoestimateonalong-termbasistheworldwideslagvolumesaccessibletoHMCMaintopics1.Howmuchblastfurnaceslagwillbeproducedwithin20years?2.Howwilltechnologicalinnovation(downsizing,energetic/ecologicalquantumleaps)affectthemetallurgicalprocessmix?(iron,scrap,scrapsubstitutes)3.Whichsea-sideintegratedsteelplantswill(still)beinoperationandhowmuchpigironwillthey(then)produce?4.Howmuchgranulatedslagwillbeavailableatplantssuitableforexport?Generalremarks•HMCshouldnotbementionedasasinterestedparty•Othersteelby-products(suchasconverter/EAFslag,internalcirculationscrap,slurries,filterdust)shouldalsobeaddressed-5-MUC-0061-90000-02-02.pptInviewofthelong-termnatureofthesurvey,slagavailabilitywillbeanalyzedfrom2perspectivesApproachandmainissuesTop-downassessmentBottom-upassessment•Forecastingofsteeloutput•Assessmentofsteelmakingtechnologytrends•Determinationoffeedstockavailabilityandcost•Assessmentofcurrent/futureplantviability•Reviewofcompany/plantstrategicoptions/plans•EstimationofmostlikelyslagoutputvolumesSlagsupply2020onaworldwidebasisunderscoredbycountrycasestudies(#5)forselectedplantsonly(#30)limitedtosea-sidelocations-6-MUC-0061-90000-02-02.ppt2.Setframeworkfortop-downanalysis-7-MUC-0061-90000-02-02.pptThetop-downanalysiswillbebasedonownassessmentsaswellasRolandBerger&PartnersindustryexpertiseanddatabasesSlagsupply2020–top-downanalysisAssessmentstepsIssuestobeaddressedInformationsources•regionalconsumption•locationaladvantages/disadvantages•capacityutilization•outputlevels•costeffectiveness:operational/capitalcosts•energyeffectiveness•expectedglobalproductionshare•environmentalimpact•rawmaterials:ironore,scrap,cokingcoal,coke•energy:gas,electricitySteeloutput–Publishedinformation–DiscussionwithsteelassociationsSteelmakingtechnologytrends–Publishedinformation–RolandBerger&Partnersdatabase–DiscussionwithplantmakersFeedstockavailabilityandcost–Publishedinformation–RolandBerger&Partnersdatabase123-8-MUC-0061-90000-02-02.pptWorldwideconsumptionoffinishedsteel[mtons]Averageannualgrowthrates[CAGRin%]Source:IISI;HatchAssociates;RolandBerger&Partnersanalysis1)TakingtheAsiacrisisintoaccountA.Indust.countries–West.Europe–USA-Canada–JapanB.RestofAsia–China–SouthKorea–OthersC.CIS/East.Europe–CIS–East.EuropeD.OthercountriesCountry/region•ModerategrowthinGDP•Decliningsteelintensity•RelativelyhighGDPgrowthrates•Increasingsteelintensity•Gradualrecoveryofnationaleconomies•Increasingsteelintensity,especiallyinLatinAmericaTrends1985–19951995–20102.13.11.61.18.15.913.59.4-11.0-12.9-8.6-0.50.70.71.00.22.42.81....