1SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT–•–20018132SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPTThisdocumentwascreatedfortheexclusiveuseofourclients.Itisnotcompleteunlesssupportedbytheunderlyingdetailedanalysesandoralpresentation.ItmustnotbepassedontothirdpartiesexceptwiththeexplicitpriorconsentofRolandBerger(Shanghai)InternationalManagementConsultantsLtd.3A.4B.520103~41~28C.51020~3049I:873SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT20001•WTO200155:jian_xu@cn.rolandberger.com•()4SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPTA.5SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT122010200320054520105~66789106SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT50%2005,20103~41~2512345200510020102001~27SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT5678910201070%8SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPTB.520103~41~29SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT50%2005,20103~41~2512345200510020102001~210SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPTGDP,1990~20006.1%6.2%6.8%7.3%7.8%8.8%10.5%5.2%5.2%:2001,OECD1.4%1.7%3.4%11SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPTWTOGDP+1%/+34%2005vs.1999+500+1.3%.+1.7%2005vs.2000+4.6%/-2.1%GDP+1.15%:,12SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT•135••WTO•WTO•(3.7%11%22.1%)••••••:•13SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT/()•••--••:•14SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT5(1/2)•80%~100%•-<40%:50%-40%~60%30%-60%~80%24%->80%:20%•525%•510%•••60•15%5•/•:•15SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT5(2/2)1)5()1)•••40%••3000•••30001.5•••2••50%••:••2003••••1005~6••“”:•16SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT“WTO!”—“WTO”—“WTO”—17SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT50%2005,20103~41~2512345200510020102001~218SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT[]10.19.18.1199419992004-1%12.114.615.3199419992004+1%1.92.02.5199419992004+5%0.190.20.21199419992004+1%4.24.14.6199419992004+2%1.52.33.3199419992004+6%3.12.84.5199419992004+9%()34.537.040.7199419992004+2%0.250.571.08199419992004+12%:S&PDRI200019SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT•20059%[]17012925032338747550857061220059222018325819941995199619971998199920002005E2010E4204524455075265906341,0002,000+7%/+9%/+15%/:2001,•1)1)20SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT()22%19%10%14%18%52%51%54%15%8%8%7%6%8%8%200020052010:,•6341,0002,0006.9%6.9%16.0%16.0%8.5%8.5%7.6%7.6%8.5%8.5%8.7%8.7%12.0%12.0%16.4%16.4%21.0%21.0%9.8%9.8%9%/9%/15%/15%/(>2.5l)[2.0~2.5l)[1.6~2.0l)()[1.0~1.6l)(<1.0l)[]21SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT050100150200250300350400+3+2.0A6+Premacy2000EM++++GL/+DC+Pride2000+Vitz+Platz+[][l]()0.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.02.53.02001:•+:A622SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT1):2001,•31%26%24%25%38%31%26%24%25%9%15%23%28%17%18%18%22%30%35%34%0%10%20%30%40%1996199719981999200024%17%13%38%8%49%46%39%46%38%36%45%45%40%15%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%199619971998199920002000()1):200050%%%23SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT1),10%1????:2001,•8%55%29%20%10%1235:1506%11%24%37%63%80%:12001):200124SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT1010%(1/2)2000123[][]10[]10[][][][][][][]2005E2010E1231236.639.8114.76639811,4702000:5.4%2005E:8%2010E:12%1010%190~2505001,4002000:30~40%2005E:50%2010E:70%6341,0002,0002000:2005E:2010E::2001,•E25SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT1010%(2/2):••:7%/.•:–2000E:=51–2005E:=53–2010E:=56[]18253510012%8%5.4%2000E2005E2010E:2001,•26SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT(1/2)5—“”••80,000•1.3L•••:,•27SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT(2/2)••••••:,•28SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT:•...
